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Microsoft Will Die in the next 10 Years

18 Sep

I’m sure some people reading this are going to think that I’m either completely insane or I’m just stupid, but I tell you I am not my good sir. Okay so maybe I am a little insane.

Microsoft has one main source of income, licenses; these licenses are of two kinds OEMs and corporate site licenses. With out even one of those two sources of income Microsoft will be crippled, some what. I don’t expect huge numbers of corporations and organizations to move away from windows anytime soon so Microsoft is fairly safe on that front, however, With Dell already shipping PCs with Ubuntu and all the rumors of other vendors looking into Gnu/linux Microsoft may face a problem.

All it would take is for one major vendor (Dell?) to get pissed off at Microsoft and switch completely to Gnu/Linux, BSD, etc. If just one would make the switch it could cause a domino affect with the other vendors. I don’t think this is as far fetched as it might sound; vendors have to pay Microsoft, not that much though, which cuts into how much money they make. So from a purely it makes sense for these vendors to dumb Microsoft, however, I don’t see that happening. What I think is more likely is that Microsoft will attack one of these companies for doing something that is completely within their rights, such as selling linux, and the company will respond by giving Microsoft the figure; It won’t be that simple but you get the idea.

now to be realistic…

Gnu/Linux is not ready for the mainstream; Ubuntu might be more user friendly(not really) than some of the other distros it isn’t idiot friendly. My brother, who is an IT professional tried out Ubuntu about a year ago and every time he would have a problem he would ask me what to do; normally he had simple problems that could be solved by just installing something, however, after I would tell him what to install he would ask how to install it. I could never get him to understand that he didn’t have to download the program from the projects website because he was used to the way it worked in windows.

Also Microsoft isn’t really going to die they are just going to lose market share. Though after some time they could eventually die completely or just exit the computer market.

Microsoft will not make as much money doing FOSS but they can stay alive. They can sell their product and still be Open but people won’t pay as much for it so they would have to look into offering services, much like Red Hat or Oracle does. Novell seems to be doing just fine in the FOSS market.

What Microsoft can do to save themselves
One of my friends asked me a while back what I would do if I was could take control of Microsoft, my first response was kill windows and go to Gnu/Linux! I’ve given it some more thought sense then and changed my mind. Here is a step by step list I came up with of things Microsoft should do to not get killed by FLOSS.

1. Join them. FLOSS is taking over and the best thing for Microsoft to do to ensure their market share for the future is to join the crowd.
2. Play nice with others. Microsoft needs to release the documentation for their products ( the full documentation), and get ride of their modified standards, such as Microsoft java.
3. Fix security holes! the tech community is more likely to use windows if it isn’t buggy and full of holes.
4. integrate a package manager (that isn’t windows update). This is just obvious, I think.
5. Open up all of the code. This kind of goes with #1 and #2 and #3…

If you have anything to say please leave a commit, but be nice :(.

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33 Comments

Posted by on September 18, 2007 in foss, Microsoft, opinion

 

33 responses to “Microsoft Will Die in the next 10 Years

  1. justanto

    September 21, 2007 at 4:08 pm

    As you probably know my blog was originally on blogger and I moved it. There were some comments on this post so I’m going to put them here.

    Anonymous 1 said
    “the first vendor who will offer only linux will bankrupt”

    Anonymous 2 said
    “from where they will make their money if they will make windows open source? as selling it will be no longer an option”

    I replied
    “When writing this blog I was very careful to use the term foss ,free open source software, not floss, because it is entirely within the gnugpl to charge for software. Free as defined by the FSF (see http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/free-sw.html) has nothing to do with price. Though that said most companies that sell linux, excluding Novell, make most of their money from selling hardware and support, but microsoft can make money in other places than just software. If Microsoft wants to make any money in the software business there will come a day when they will have to move to free software, this is what I meant by dyeing.”

    I did make a reply to the first anonymous when he posted on digg but digg is down right now so I can’t get it.

     
    • iHatei

      September 27, 2014 at 3:09 pm

      My opinion about that. Windows sucks and i hate them. And on top of that. They are selfish assholes. They are trying to makes non-windows user suffer with the new locked uefi. Also, they are buying programs sush like Halo game Series and minecraft and they try to buy capcom now and i know where its going. They are going to make games compatible in their own product or makes them more have avantages in their platoform. MICROSOFT HAVE THE MONEY UBUNTU DONT. The majority of their peapoles uses their OS because of their softwares sush as microsoft office ( that i think is the most important ) they have a apple version too well in reality microsoft office was based on apple sofwares… So officialy, microsoft office compatible with linux i dont think so . Also, Gamming companies, they use windows, they dont care that gamming is less better on windows than Ubuntu ( cause linux code are way lighter than windows code), its because every body uses Windows and they cant affroad to makes them compatible with Ubuntu or other linux Os. Windows have API like Directx that Ubuntu dont. So games companies have to desingn their own for linux and it cost money. And i assume that the linux community doesnt have enough money just by donation to develop a API. Solutions is, if peapole donate more, If they makes their product non-free ( if they are allowed ). Also, because Windows are in the top competitor pf the OS. I dont think they give a fuck about approoving their OS seriously they even making them worses. i Hate window 8 like hell. They are the computers that i have to work with at school… so im used to this os BUT I STILL HATE IT. If windows get in a bad position of competition. They would spend more money on their next OS. In resume, Windows sucks today, but they have money more than anyone and with money you can overcome who doesnt have money. I am not with Windows cause they are ingnorants littles fuck, The worst legal theif ( they copied from linux and apple and many more), Selfish assholes ( they are trying to make the pc compatible for themself only) AND A PILE OF CRAP ( They Sucks). But they have money, sadly… But we linux fans, have to fight back!

       
  2. arcane

    October 7, 2007 at 9:38 am

    I agree with all of the said except for one point: To open (i. e. publish) the source code.
    Microsoft spent a lot of research and development on their software, why should they give away the source code?

    Does any engine builder company or car manufacturer give away its blueprints? So that the competition may copy the good ideas without having to go through the costly process of research and testing? Certainly not. That would be like digging your own grave.
    Why does everybody think that this should happen with software?
    Who on earth brought up this ideological software-communism shit?

    That’s not the way software business works. Any software company giving away their source code would have to step down to a support company.

     
    • Marcello

      August 18, 2009 at 5:50 am

      Don’t forget Google. Half their software is FOSS, more than half of it is gratis, and they’re not doing too badly, are they? They own the internet, pretty much, but people still like them.

       
  3. Justin

    October 12, 2007 at 8:01 pm

    I respect your opinion but I do have an argument to make for opening the source.
    all the cool kids are doing it… Okay so thats not the real argument.

    Microsoft needs to open their source so that their software will stop sucking. Microsoft doesn’t seem to be capable of maintaining and upgrading their own code. For example Vista, look at how long it took them to make Vista and it Still sucks. Microsoft has a legal commitment to make money for their shareholders and you may argue that the best way to make money is to continue with what they are doing. I disagree, I hate it when people only think in the short term… If you produce crap eventually people will stop buying it. The only way to ensure that they make money for their share holders is if they stay in business and if people stop buying their stuff they wont be.

    To go back to the cool kids thing, Red hat, novel, and even Sun are making a pretty good business of giving away FLOSS software, On top of that, like I’ve said a few times, it is not outside of the Gnu GPL or the BSD licenses to sell software so their is no reason Microsoft cold not Continue to sell windows.

    I think that this might come out sounding a little more angry and defensive than I want it to sound. If it does try not to take it that way it isn’t how I meant it.

     
  4. Justin

    October 14, 2007 at 9:20 am

    what don’t you understand? Maybe I can make it clearer.

     
  5. whoever

    October 14, 2007 at 9:23 am

    You forgot to take GOVERNMENTS and CORPORATIONS into consideration. Microsoft has locked down the government and corporation business. It’s really the governments and corporations that are driving Microsoft’s insane revenues and profits.

    Let’s take some major corporation that uses Windows as their IT backbone as an example. Bank America. Countrywide. Citibank. Whatever. Some major huge megacorp. So, I ask the IT guys from some of those companies why they don’t switch from Windows over to something cheaper, like Gnu/Linux. As an outsider, I thought that seems to be cost-effective.

    Here’s what they tell me: They don’t do business with Windows or Linux. They do business with Microsoft. They want strong SUPPORT from a stable company that they know will be here in ten years, twenty years, etc. They want to be able to know that if their computer systems breaks, they will be able to call up a company (Microsoft) and get it fixed and taken care of. That’s SUPPORT. They have a strong business relationship with Microsoft. They feel safe and secured in knowing that they are well-taken care of by Microsoft. They know Microsoft will still be in business 5 years from now, 10 years from now, 20 years from now.

    So, let’s take Linux as an example. There’s a bunch of small companies that make and sell Linux or other OS, and they come in different flavors. These companies often go out of business in 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, etc. So. Let say a corporation switch over to another OS (like some flavor of Linux) from a new company. (First of all, it’s a headache to switch. But let say they switch.) What if 5 years from now that company goes out of business? Who will support the OS then? The corporation will be screwed.

    Corporations have to think about this sort of things when they make a business decision. And they are conservative in thinking and outlook.

    As long as those corporations continue their business relationships with Microsoft, and they like to know Microsoft will be in business to continue that relationship and support with them, it will be extremely difficult if not impossible for Windows to ever go away. It’s the same case with a lot of governments.

    So it’s those governments and corporations that are keeping Microsoft strong and in business.

     
  6. Justin

    October 14, 2007 at 12:57 pm

    “I don’t expect huge numbers of corporations and organizations to move away from windows anytime soon so Microsoft is fairly safe on that front” from above.

    You make some good points but I do feel that there might be a solution to that. I will admit that there are lots of little Linux companies that go out of business all the time and I completely agree with you there. However, There are a few larger companies that sell and support Linux/Unix that I don’t expect to go out of business soon, such as: Sun, novell, Red Hat, Apple. I want to ignore those though because they don’t make as good of an example as the other one I can think of, IBM. IBM has silently supported Linux for quite some time now and recently switched the kernal in AIX to Linux (AIX 5L). IBM has been around much longer than Microsoft and is likely to stick around. I can understand not wanting to use IBM software, especially until AIX 5L is thoroughly field tested.

    I’m not saying that you are in anyway worng, because it is just the opposite, but I am saying that there is potential for the same kind of support you can get from Microsoft with a non-Microsoft product.

    Feel free to pick this apart, I do rather enjoy it ;).

     
  7. Bob

    October 14, 2007 at 2:36 pm

    You ARE stupid. You are wrong and stupid. This won’t happen because microsoft is an evil monopoly that won’t allow it to happen.

     
  8. Justin

    October 14, 2007 at 2:48 pm

    Your argument has shown me my obvious fault, I retract all of my previous statements.

     
  9. WurdBendur

    October 14, 2007 at 6:29 pm

    If Microsoft gives away their source code under the GPL or some other license that allows them to continue selling it, then it must also allow OTHERS to sell it as well. Mozilla may not care if people want to sell Firefox (because they’re giving it away for free), but if people undercut Microsoft by huge amounts, and they have no way of controlling it, then their only reasonable response is to reduce their prices (eventually down to nothing), and there goes all the money they spent developing it. Then the only way they’ll make any money is if they sell service and support. Perhaps official copies of Windows would include support and updates, while non-Microsoft copies would not.
    In any case, opening their source is not necessarily going to make it any better. It might be feasible for them to incorporate some open code in minor applications, if only as a test run.

     
  10. gadobangkong

    September 14, 2008 at 7:10 pm

    disagree: linux doesnot have many games

    agree: Microsoft is spending much money for nothing (like buy website, etc.) than researching for better OS.

     
  11. Mike

    January 27, 2009 at 10:12 pm

    I tend to agree…I”m an old timer and remember how fast computers used to be. I wish Microsoft would just do software and not operating systems. I have a motto – Computer science existed BEFORE Microsoft and will exist AFTER Microsoft

     
  12. Freelance Seo India

    April 26, 2009 at 4:15 am

    Trust me! This is not going to happen in coming 100yrs.. Did you check out Win 7. If not then please check and reply me.. It is going to kill Linux!

    Just waiting for its release!

     
    • Justin

      April 27, 2009 at 11:00 am

      Yes, I have tried the beta of Windows 7. It is much better than vista (especially the beta of vista which was complete crap). Windows 7 might slow the flow of converts; it may even get some people to switch back, but it will not kill linux. The hardcore linux users use linux will not go back to windows because no matter how polished windows 7 is it simply does offer the power you can get from linux. Windows 7 was ok to play with and it worked for the things I do with my second computer (web surfing mostly), but I wouldn’t want to use it as a main computer because I am just more comfortable with linux and linux offers me the capability to do the things I need to do without having to go find slow gui programs that do the same thing half as well (like you do in windows). Don’t even get me started on all the drm crap build into windows either; or the fact that no matter how good it is microsoft will find a way to make it suck.

      If you want to use Window 7 go for it. I won’t because it just doesn’t do what I want.

       
  13. Shankar

    February 19, 2010 at 12:31 am

    Windows 7 is very beautiful…I love it.
    To convince consumers to use linux, it has to be made as beatiful and user friendly as windows 7.
    If that happens any day people will start to look for PCs, laptops and netbooks with linux installed (which they currently don’t) and windows will completely dissapear from the scene in the consumer market.

     
  14. Benjamin Sutton

    April 20, 2010 at 4:01 pm

    Update: since windows 7 has come out, lots of people i know have switched to ubuntu 9.10, thanks to windows’ un-stability, and ubuntu’s easy-to-use, easy-to-customise, interface. Apparently windows 7 was as rubbish as it was expected to be, and then some…

    I myself was forced to switch to linux (I had not yet realised how great it was) as my new £1000 computer with windows 7 pre-installed started getting slower and slower from the moment I first turned it on, so I gave linux a try, and loved it…

    Windows is screwed, not microsoft, just windows.

     
  15. wulfric

    May 6, 2010 at 8:18 am

    Well said Justin. The day IBM (or just as likely Google) put their weight behind Linux the world will be a better place. Few corporations will trust a lightweight like Canonical to handle their IT (No offence, I use Kubuntu exclusively)

     
    • Justin

      May 9, 2010 at 11:27 pm

      I don’t know if I would say canonical will never be trusted to handle IT for large corporations. I think where the IBM, Googles, and hps come in is easily available cheap hardware that runs linux out of the box. For the near future Canonical may not be providing support but I have been watching them for a few years and except that their ultimate goal is to get into the IT business. First get everyone to use your product for free, Then say, “hey, you know for a little bit of money you could purchase some support.” If I were canonical I would be trying to get a boxed version of Ubuntu into Walmart that cost $20-$50 (maybe with a 2 or 3 level support system i.e. $20 gets you 6 months support, $35 get you 1 year support, and $50 get you 2 year support). I don’t expect a corporate conversion to linux for a while just because corporations tend to be very slow to change (for good reason).

       
  16. itsme

    June 4, 2010 at 5:29 pm

    the main reason windows cant release their sources of windows is, that the community would laugh over it. the amount of blindly found security holes build into all microsoft products show that the code must be not very good.

    i know NO it professional who would honestly say “windows is better than linux”. everyone knows its worse. consumers look for other stuff though. they look for bling, bling, that their games work, that they arent bothered with too much configuration.

    windows will die. not because of ubuntu alone. it will die because of chrome os, android and mac os. it will die. look at MS… they dont do anything originally. apple and google keynotes make the whole industry have sparkling eyes. if microsoft presents new stuff everyone yawns. its either a ripoff of a apple or google product or its something that is just not exciting. MS was there with their win mobile smartphones a long time. but they didnt cut it at all. iphone, android and suddenly everyone wants a smartphone.

     
  17. HEHEHE

    June 20, 2010 at 7:25 am

    Even if you say that Vista might suck, which it did, it was still more capable than any linux distribution out there. Linux is no where nearly good enough to be in mainstream production, and it never will be. Free stuff just isn’t better. Software companies in general will always have better minds, and because these are paid minds, they tend to work better. I tried Ubuntu, which is basically the most user friendly linux out there, yet it doesn’t do stuff by itself. The latest distribution os Ubuntu is not even nearly comparable to Windows XP let alone Vista.

    So to you linux lovers out there, I’m gonna have to break it to ya: linux cannot even be compared with anything microsoft or even apple (a company I hate). You will have to realize people don’t work hard on something they don’t get paid for. Linux is so behind in the race it will never catch up.

    Plus try even comparing Windows 7 to linux. (FYI you can’t)

     
  18. HEHEHE

    June 20, 2010 at 7:26 am

    also most people don’t even know what linux is, except computer enthusiasts, so I don’t see it going anywhere.

     
  19. Justin

    June 20, 2010 at 3:22 pm

    Your opinion of Ubuntu (and linux in general) seems to be colored by your expectations. You expect it to be exactly like windows therefore when it is not like windows it is wrong or bad. Most linux users I know say that they can’t use Windows to do any serious work so at least for them windows is not in any way superior.

    most people don’t know what windows is either. People don’t have to know what os they are using to us it. Linux is prevalent in embedded system which people use all the time with out thinking about (phone, tvs, set-top boxes).

     
  20. Phil

    July 29, 2010 at 4:43 pm

    I agree 100% with Justin, Microsoft spends too much time trying to protect their software instead of trying to improve it.

    Linux companies like Canonical don’t have to worry about it because the linux kernel is freely available and constantly updated BECAUSE it’s open source. The average security hole, once found, is patched within 3 hours while with Windows, security holes can take YEARS to finally be patched.

     
  21. pokemon1

    December 6, 2010 at 10:37 am

    Microsoft will never die. C++ is their major
    strength. You cannot compare it with any
    chain compiler like gcc.

    The truth Always hurts

     
    • hello

      October 31, 2011 at 3:55 am

      gcc is better than windows c++

       
  22. php

    October 31, 2011 at 3:51 am

    i googled the article “when piuracy will die microsoft will also die”
    i got yours i really agree withour thougts thats why i googled them

     
  23. QQQ

    December 14, 2012 at 3:33 pm

    Is this article written by 13 years old? No business logic, no economy logic, no grammar logic :DDDD

     
  24. Peter Steier

    August 4, 2014 at 2:10 pm

    This article is now more up-to-date than when it was written…
    Microsoft depends more on Office than on Windows (though they do not know it). Office 2014 will drive many users to Open Office, which is quite good by now. Why then not have it run in Ubuntu?

     
  25. Justin

    August 4, 2014 at 2:22 pm

    Rumor is Microsoft will be focusing more on supporting other platforms going forward (e.g. office for ipad) and I think we can expect an office for android in the near future.

    I think for now desktop OSes are not that important. If Microsoft wants to target desktops they need to focus more on providing Office as a service through the browser and this is exactly what they are doing.

    I think Microsoft fully realized that if they stuck to Windows and continued business as usual they would soon become the next IBM and we have seen a lot of changes in Microsoft in the last year which have moved microsoft away from Windows.

    so to sum it up. I was right on the premise (or at least it seems so as of right now), but Microsoft (and the world) found a different solution than I did at the time.

     
  26. lexter

    November 2, 2014 at 6:27 am

    Linux on the desktop is dead. The only thing that will kill microsoft is the change to mobile that has happened. Android is already the most used operating system by far. But linux on the desktop? Don’t make me laugh. What a ridiculous article.

     

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